NewsGate Press Network

As India entered into its second week of countrywide lockdown, experts believe frequency of positive cases that will be reported in next seven days will decide the direction in which India’s COVID19 curve is heading, i.e., North, East or South.

It took 12 days for positive cases to travel from 100 to 1000.

The next markers to watch are at 2000 & 3000 of the total number of positive cases. The success of India’s nationwide lockdown will eventually be determine by how soon these markers are reached, i.e. whether India has been able to break the virus chain or not.

An ICMR expert while addressing media during the daily press briefing on 31 March 2020 had stated that all positive cases that are now being reported, are ‘old ones, of the pre-lockdown period’.

The fresh ones, post 24-March-2020, will begin to appear only by this weekend. Everyone is keeping their fingers crossed.

For majority of counties that took a direct hit by COVID19, the total number of positive cases suddenly jumped after healthcare workers discovered that virus had infected a large gathering or clusters in short span of time.

Such groups are termed ‘hot COVID clusters’ or ‘COVID19 red zone’.

Take for example most infections in South Korea. The site was from a particular church frequented by an infected woman. This South Korean church became the red zone and the sect of this particular church became the ‘cluster’.

Presently, India has a dubious distinction of one such cluster or red zone area, i.e., Nizamuddin West in Delhi. The cluster is Tablighi Jamaat Markaz (headquarters of Islamic Preachers).

The Markaz congregation held between 13 March – 15 March, is now a suspected epicentre of India’s ticking COVID19 time bomb.

Reports suggest that close to 150 cases have originated from this cluster. More than 70 positive cases in Tamil Nadu have emerged from this cluster alone.

The after effects of spread of COVID 19 emanating from this congregation have been reported in Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Telangana, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka and Maharashtra. When reports last came-in (by midnight on Tuesday i.e. 01 April 2020) number of positive cases (arising out of this Markaz Masjid function), is still going up.