NewsGate Press Network

By Pankaj Vohra

There is intense speculation in certain political circles that the present ruling dispensation could be toying with the proposal of an early Lok Sabha poll, to coincide with the elections to the state Assemblies in winter this year.

While the idea may sound completely bizarre since the BJP will be in the driver’s seat in December as it would be in April/May next year, the conjecture appears to have no rationale for many.

However, as the late Devendra Dwivedi, eminent lawyer and a close aide of P.V. Narasimha Rao, would often say that politics has its own logic and its own illogic as well. The final call on this crucial decision, if at all it is taken, would depend on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who continues to be the most popular leader in the country.

It is a well-established reality that politics is a game of possibilities, and anything that can be understood theoretically, can translate itself into a practical nature, if those controlling the narrative, deem certain actions unavoidable.

Early elections have examples which have worked both ways. In 2004, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, much against his own wishes, was convinced by his ambitious deputy L.K. Advani and colleagues, Pramod Mahajan and Venkaiah Naidu, to advance the Lok Sabha polls, in order to reap the benefits of the “India Shining” and “Feel Good Factor” campaigns.

The fact is that Chandrababu Naidu, the then Andhra Chief Minister was interested in having the Lok Sabha and his state Assembly polls together since in his estimation, that was the only way he could win.

The gamble backfired. The BJP was relegated to the second position behind the Congress in the Lok Sabha and Chandrababu Naidu was routed by Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy in his own backyard. Vajpayee, till his every end, could never reconcile with this defeat, and continued to pose questions on why he was driven into an early election, when the normal schedule would have been more BJP friendly.

However, that is history. In the present context, it is believed by many that the BJP after the loss in Karnataka, cannot afford to face more defeats in bigger states, and in case it loses Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana, its cadres would be greatly demoralized, and thus it would be a Herculean task to get them into the Parliamentary poll mode, within a few months from this possible negative outcome.

Modi and his deputy, Amit Shah, are both past masters in understanding political arithmetic and are 24X7 politicians, who take calibrated steps while making vital political decisions. Therefore, if the BJP does take a call to have an early poll, it would be something which would be completely thought through with all its repercussions and ramifications, closely studied and examined.

Narendra Modi has mastered the art of overturning results by his political masterstrokes, and in the event the Parliamentary election is advanced, it would be on the simple calculation that it would help the BJP overcome impediments in the states, where it is not strong, and also deprive the Opposition of sufficient time to regroup, and present a united and collective challenge.

In 1989, Bhaurao Deoras, younger brother of the then RSS chief, Balasaheb Deoras, who had a very cordial equation with the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, had advised him to go for an early Lok Sabha election in order to prevent the Opposition parties from arriving at an understanding. Rajiv ignored this advice at the behest of the likes of Mani Shankar Aiyar, who gave the impression that the Panchayati Raj issue would help the Congress immensely, if the polls were held as per schedule.

The then Director, Intelligence Bureau, M.K. Narayanan, further convinced the Prime Minister that the Congress was poised to get more than 300 seats as per inputs received by him.

The Congress lost primarily because Rajiv did not pay heed to the sound advice he had received from his RSS friend, and was unseated as the Prime Minister, with Vishwanath Pratap Singh succeeding him in the winter of that year.

Times have changed and it is a different era now. The BJP is the dominant party, and at present has all the aces up its sleeves. The indicators of an early polls, which possibly could also be deceptive to mislead the party’s detractors, are there. For instance, the emphasis of the dispensation is on propagating nine years of the Modi government. The perplexing question is why not ten, which would be there by next year?

Yes, there are quite a few in the BJP who are convinced that the outcome of the winter Assembly polls would not be favourably inclined towards the saffron brigade, so rethinking has to be there.

In the present context, if developments were to be interpreted from a predictable angle, they could support the early election theory.

The pointers are that to begin with, the BJP is revamping its organizational structure throughout the country. This would be followed by a Cabinet expansion to include some more allies such as Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and possibly some more regional outfits. The idea would be to prepare for a broader coalition in the unlikely event of the BJP not getting a majority on its own.

The Opposition’s disunity is also a factor since charges and counter charges are already being traded by the Congress and the AAP and the Trinamool Congress. However, it is Narendra Modi alone who will decide which pitch he has to bat on and when. Between us.

(Courtesy – The Sunday Guardian, New Delhi)